Damn Lies and statistics in the era of GOATs. An arbitrary look at how football has changed since the 90s

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics? ”

 If you consume any kind of football media, you’ll be aware of the deluge of statistics forming a kind of nebulous glow surrounding our understanding of football. Perhaps the only area of football more desperately in need of a regulatory body than that of stats, is the trade in supposed player quotes. Seemingly every day we are informed of a feat that reassures us that what we are watching now is the pinnacle, these are the best players, the best teams and the best entertainment. If Cristiano Ronaldo has scored more goals on a Wednesday than any other player in history (citation needed) then, in the words of Russell Crowe in Gladiator, ‘are you not entertained?’

But what do these statistics mean? What do we need reassuring from? There is an equal sense that perhaps this is all an artifice. As the big clubs get ever richer and Bayern Munich rack up their 9th consecutive Bundesliga an underlying feeling develops , is this all real?

Writers more articulate than me, such as Jonathan Wilson in 2019, have put the convincing case that ‘football is broken,’ Manchester City’s sky blue smashing of Watford proves football is broken | Manchester City | The Guardian . Citing, ‘there have always been big clubs before, rich clubs, but never clubs whose status at the top of the game is so systemically secure.’ Noting in 2019, that ‘In 67 Premier League games this season one side had 70% possession or more; 15 years ago there was one.’

This is not an attempt to rewrite those arguments, merely an attempt, using some not particularly scientifically statistics, to put our current football in context.

One way to judge the gap between the best teams and the rest is simply to look at the points totals. An obvious starter point is remembering that of the 6 highest points totals in the Premier League, 5 have come since 2016/2017. To continue this theme, I’ve chosen the dominant team (or two), from the English, Spanish, German and Italian leagues for each of three decades, the 90s,00s and 10s (90/91-99/00 inclusive and so on) and tracked their points per game to see what this can tell us.

In England

90s Manchester United had a points per game of 2.02

00s Manchester United had a points per game of 2.16

10s Manchester City had a points per game of 2.16

In Italy

90s Juventus had a points per game of 1.93 AC Milan had a points per game of 1.91

00s Inter Milan had a points per game of 2.01

10s Juventus had a points per game of 2.29

In Spain

90s Real Madrid had a points per game of 1.90 Barcelona had a points per game of 2.04

00s Real Madrid had a points per game of 2.04 Barcelona had a points per game of 1.97

10s Real Madrid had a points per game of 2.28 Barcelona had a points per game of 2.39

In Germany

90s Bayern Munich had a points per game of 1.95

00s Bayern Munich had a points per game of 2.05

10s Bayern Munich had a points per game of 2.38

 What does this tell us. Well, the low points totals suggest the 90s in Italy was a punishingly difficult league. Overall, there is a clear upward points trend as the decades pass. Indeed, apart from a Barcelona drop from the 90s to 00s as they descended into chaos and the Premier League in the 10s, It is universally up on every metric.  For the Premier league in the 10s the number largely stayed steady as big clubs rebuilt and Manchester City’s financial dominance took time to take hold. We would be looking at numbers comparable to the other leagues if we included only post 2016.

For the 90s, the average points per game for teams surveyed was 1.95.

For the 00s, the average points per game for the teams surveyed was 2.04

For the 10s, the average points per game for the teams surveyed was 2.3

That is a significant difference. Over a 38 game season that is the equivalent of 74.1, 77.5 and 87.4 points. For a player playing for a top club in the 2010s that means they would be gaining, on average 13 additional points per season in comparison to the 90s. Meaning more wins and presumably more opportunities to score goals. Is it any wonder we now have such a surplus of astonishing goal scoring feats? Well maybe it isn’t. Maybe I’m getting this the wrong way round. Maybe we do have a crop of outstanding players who have gone to the best teams, which has made them produce such points totals.

If you thought the first part of this was arbitrary...

To answer that question I’ve used international football as control group. International football is less influenced by financial stratification. So if todays top players are simply better, the difference between their feats for their club teams and international teams will remain consistent? But that’s perhaps unrealistic, after all they will be playing more evenly matched teams internationally so goal output is likely to be reduced. However, if that is the case and todays players are simply better, then surely the drop off from club football to international football will be consistent from this generation to previous generations. So I’ve chosen 7 of the best goal scorers from the 2010s and 6 from previous generations to compare goals per game, both clubs wise and in international football. The results are as follows (as of 4th February 2022)

 Current

Cristiano Ronaldo-Club 0.74 . International 0.62

Lionel Messi-Club 0.83. International 0.5

Luis Suarez-Club 0.62. International 0.51

Robert Lewandowski Club 0.72. International 0.57

Neymar Club 0.61. International 0.6

Kylian Mbappe Club 0.66. International 0.45

Sergio Aguero Club 0.56. International 0.4

Retired

Thierry Henry Club 0.45. International 0.41

Ronaldo Club 0.67. International 0.63

Gabriel Batistuta Club 0.53. International 0.7

Raul Club 0.42. International 0.43

Ruud Van Nistelrooy Club 0.58. International 0.5

Andrei Shevchenko Club 0.48. International 0.43

What does this tell us? Well the headline figure would be, for current players club wise they are scoring an average of 0.67 goals per game. At a much higher level than the 0.52 from the retired group. However in international football for current players, this falls sharply to 0.52. For retired players however this stays absurdly consistent at 0.51. Even taking out the Gabriel Batistuta outlier, where he was scoring at a significantly higher level internationally than he was in Serie A, (although remember the Italian 90s points totals!) this still works out at 0.47. A much closer total.

So for the worlds best strikers, in international football now, club football in the past and international football of the past, the goals per game ratio works out an average of roughly a goal every other game. For whatever reason, this shoots up markedly for club football in the present. In fact the goals per game difference drop from club to international football, when comparing current players to the retired group, falls from 0.15 goals a game to 0.01 goals a game. Thus if I was being mischievous, I could impose a 0.14 goals a game tax on modern players club totals. If I was to do this, Lionel Messi continues to have the highest goal per game in club football of the players chosen, at 0.69 but the gap is significantly narrowed over (Brazilian) Ronaldo at 0.67.

So what have we learnt from this? Today’s players remain brilliant and Lionel Messi remains an astonishing goalscorer. Even including the modern day tax. However the constant breathless statistics should be taken with a contextual pinch of salt.