Why it’s the ghosts of 2015,not 2010 that haunt Crystal Palace
For Crystal Palace the summer of 2015 was one of possibility. Coming off a 10th place finish, the club had seemingly emerged unscathed from a turbulent opening two years in the Premier League in no mood to rest on their laurels.
Just three years after the almost cataclysmic fall into administration of 2010, Palace found themselves the beneficiaries of an unexpected promotion to the Premier League in 2012/2013. This was achieved despite the severe disruption of the mid season departure of influential manager Dougie Freedman. In the two years since Palace had somehow weathered the competing storms of the departure of key player Wilfried Zaha, the long term injury of top scorer Glenn Murray, a chaotic summer transfer window shorn of Freedman’s guidance in 2013, a disastrous start to the 2013/14 season and being abandoned by manager Tony Pullis days before the start of the 2014/15 season.
Rather than the quick return to the Championship that seemed inevitable at several points, Palace were now a top ten Premier League team with an enviable array of talent. Palace boasted a core of (the returned) Wilfried Zaha, Yannick Bolasie, Scott Dann, Joel Ward, Jason Puncheon, Mile Jedinak and James McArthur. Palace were determined not to squander the fruits of the feats of escapology that fate had bestowed upon them and sought to press home their advantage.
Over the next two years, Palace made several high-profile signings intended to boost this core. In came French internationals Yohan Cabaye for £10 million, Mamadou Sakho for £26million and Steve Mandana on a Bosman signing, England international Andros Townsend for £13million, Belgian international Christian Benteke for £27million. In one January transfer window they spent £30million on Luka Milivojevic, Patrick Van Aanholt and Jeffrey Schlupp. The wage bill and expectations rocketed. From spending £46 million on wages in 2014, this had gone up to £117million in 2018. In 2014 this formed 51% of their turnover, a figure which was up to 78% in 2018. Similarly, an operating profit in 2014 of £23million had turned into a £37million deficit in 2018 and £61 million by 2020 (source Swiss ramble).
As co-owner Steve Parish said in an interview with the Guardian in September 2015
““We had a team who finished third in 1991 and there’s a lesson to learn from the past,” says Parish. “Ron Noades did so much right in the way he ran this club back then, but my only criticism is he didn’t put his foot to the floor and spend that extra money when he had a chance to kick on. I’ve tried to do that. Nothing about the Cabaye deal is a bargain: we paid full whack to the club, full whack to the player. But sometimes you just have to pay to take you to another level….
“There was no question about Yohan’s pedigree, but it was also what it said about the club. The statement it made. Scott Dann was courted by other clubs this summer but, when we signed Yohan, he said to me: ‘The clubs I’m being linked with aren’t signing players of that calibre. They’re not showing that ambition. Why would I go anywhere else?’”
Parish did note some caution that would prove prescient.
‘The annual wage bill last season was £52m. “This year it will probably be somewhere in the region of £70m,” says Parish through a whisper. “There are regulations, cost control measures and targets we have to hit, and we were close with ‘issues’ in that respect.’
Of those signings from 2015-2017, only Jeffrey Schlupp, at 24, who remains at the club, was under 25 years of age when he signed. The rest have since departed for no transfer fee. Palace have never returned to the top ten of the Premier League.
That is not to say there weren’t high points. The run to the FA Cup final in 2016 remains one of the great achievements of the club’s history. 2017/18 saw Palace emerge from the turmoil of the Frank de Boer mini era, to form a fine team under Roy Hodgson, spearheaded by Zaha now in his peak. In 2018/19 they even managed to add an additional point to their 48 in 2014/15, albeit only securing 12th place.
Nevertheless by 2019 the feeling had started to set in that Palace had missed their chance. Despite the influx of £50million from selling Aaron Wan-Bissaka in 2019, the days of high cost signings had passed. With a squad past its peak and in need of refresh, the pressures of a high wage bill, sunk costs in transfer fees and financial fair play, meant that from 2018 onwards transfer activity was more muted. In the seasons 18/19 and 19/20 Palace spent a total of £12million and signings tended to be of the cheap, experienced and reliable nature needed to play the safety first ‘Roy ball’ of 19/20 and 20/21, as the club desperately tried to tread water in the league and avoid financial apocalypse. The summer of 2020 at least saw the £16million signing of exciting young attacking midfielder Eberechi Eze, but the squad around him was uninspiring and the football remained turgid.
Palace did however retain their ability to survive while the precipice came sharply into view. Roy Hodgson’s safe hands avoided some of the immediate jeopardy of the earlier Premier League years. The job he did in these seasons remains remarkable as Palace never seriously entered the relegation battle, despite a paucity of resources.
By 2021 contracts of the aging squad had begun to expire. Gary Cahill, Scott Dann, Wayne Hennessey, James McCarthy, Mamadou Sakho, Andros Townsend, Patrick Van Aanholt and Connor Wickham all departed on free transfers that summer. This gave more leeway in terms of wages and with financial fair play coming into a more favourable cycle, freed up £500k a week to spend on salaries (source tifo football)
Having weathered the storm once again, by 2021 Palace were presented with an opportunity to build a new club. Dougie Freedman had returned as director of football and was able to set about putting in place a strategy. Since signing Cheik Kouyate in 2018, Palace have not spent over £2.5 million on a player above the age of 26. Young talent has flooded into the club in the form of Marc Guehi (currently 23), Joachim Andersen (27) , Michael Olise (21), Eberichi Eze (25), Cheick Doucoure (23), Odsonne Edouard (26) , Matheus Franca (19) , Malcom Ebiowei (20), Chris Richards (23), Naourirou Ahamada (21) and Dean Henderson (26). Palace have endeavoured not to risk the stagnation of 19/20 and 20/21 caused by mortgaging their finances onto an older team without firm foundations, who will depart providing no funds to replace them. The ownership appears to have empowered Freedman to be detailed and specific in his long-term transfer targets, which has enabled a remarkable success rate on young bigger money signings and little money is wasted. When Palace do look for experience to supplement the squad, they shop in the bargain end of the market, bringing in Jefferson Lerma, Rob Holding and Sam Johnstone for a combined total of under £2million.
It is hoped this will be aided by the fruits of the new Category 1 academy which opened in 2021, seeking to make use of the fertile catchment area of South London, dubbed the ‘concrete Catalonia.’ This will take time for the benefit to be shown, but there have been promising signs. Jesrun Rak-Sakyi (21) and David Ozoh (18) have both been tested in the Premier League this season and age level squads are performing well. Academy graduate Tyrick Mitchell has recently passed 100 Premier League appearances at only age 24 and has 2 England caps.
As Palace embarked on the 2023/24 season they have a squad positioned to match and improve upon the promise of 2015. Michael Olise, Joachim Andersen, Marc Guehi, Eberichi Eze and Cheick Doucoure have all been linked with clubs with designs on the Champions League. Palace however remain stubbornly resistant to the lures they succumbed to in 2015. Having built this squad, major spending in the summer 2023 was limited to players who have not immediately improved the first team. Funds in the region of £40million were spent on Matheus Franca and Dean Henderson, neither of whom have started a Premier League match by time of writing. This follows the arrival of Naouiro Ahamada for £9.7 million in January 2023 who is also yet to start in the league, and Chris Richards for around £10million in summer 2022, who remains behind Andersen and Guehi in the central defensive positions. In fact, aside from Cheick Doucoure in 2022, Palace have not spent a single penny in transfer fees on a player who could be considered a starter since August 2021.
What is behind this strategy? Palace have got themselves into a position where they have arguably their strongest squad in 30 years and are well placed to push on and reach the ‘next level’ as Steve Parish infamously promised on the final day of the 2023 season. While Palace could spend more funds on first team players, the experience of 2015 has taught the club that given the wealth of the teams they are competing with and the restrictions of financial fair play, they do not have the ability to compete on an equal footing with at least 9 clubs in the league. As such they have taken a more long term view. Rightly or wrongly, the club believe their money goes further, and is safer investing for the future at the expense of the likely limited gains of immediate starting line up reinforcements.
As 2019-2021 shows, the risks of building an unsustainable squad and not capitalising on this are perilous. While Palace have been busy attempting to sign their stars onto long term contracts, their focus seems to suggest it is unlikely to be with the intention of tying them in for the long haul Wilfried Zaha style. While in Zaha’s time, the nature of the squad meant Palace were in serious relegation peril without their talisman, the risk is far more spread now. Indeed, Palace remain stubbornly midtable even after the departure of Zaha and with periods of injury for primary attacking sparks Olise and Eze. Palace’s signings appear to be building towards a situation where stars can leave and be replaced. For Andersen and Guehi see Chris Richards, for Doucoure-Ahamada, for Olise Rak-Sakyi and for Eze-Franca. This leads to a potential future where players can be sold and their role filled internally, which in turn allows a large transfer income to be focused on replenishing other areas of the squad and greater ability to compete with those with more intrinsic wealth. Palace’s intention may be to build up this conveyer belt of talent which can be sold on for big fees and seamlessly promote from the existing squad. This would be theoretically be supplemented by the academy. With the planned new main stand taking the club within closer distance of the bottom end of the clubs financially out of reach, the hope is this means the chances of competing for European football can come around more often. Parish noted in an interview with Gary Lineker in 2023, ‘our revenue is £170 million…the Villa’s will be a little bit more, £200million plus…. because they have a bigger ground.’
Having got Palace into a 2015 like situation they appear determined not to squander it all on a couple of seasons of opportunity. Far from the bombast of 2015, Parish now says
“‘it has it’s challenges in trying to compete with people with a lot more money…we have a strategy for the club…based on the long term expansion of infrastructure…we need to bring more talent through as obviously it’s lower cost than going and buying talent…the only way round it is to have a long term plan…how do we break the glass ceiling and get into Europe and how do we do it without betting the farm…as long as we’re moving towards that aim I’m happy.’”
Palace’s squad now appears remarkably resilient. While for many fans 2021/22 is seen as the high point of Palace’s ambition, a closer look at the squad reveals the necessary work that has been done since. Of the important members of that squad, Vincent Guita, Jack Butland, Martin Kelly, Cheik Kouyate, Connor Gallagher, James McArthur, Luka Milivojevic, Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke have all left on a free transfer or loan return. Joel Ward (34), Nathaniel Clyne (32), , James Tomkins (34), Jordan Ayew (32) and Jeffrey Schlupp (30) remain and are likely to leave for small or no fees in the near future. As for the squad now, aside from the aforenoted players, it is only Jefferson Lerma (29), Will Hughes (28), Rob Holding (28) and Sam Johnstone (30) who are unlikely to either give many years’ service or provide sufficient transfer income to comfortably fill their role in the squad. There remain some danger areas. At right back, Joel Ward and Nathaniel Clyne are going to require replacing in the coming seasons, with no obvious existing option or prospect of a transfer fee. The same can be said for Jordan Ayew and Jeffrey Schlupp at left wing. For now, as well as offering leadership and maintaining a club culture, the advantage these players offer over bringing in short term alternatives, is that they can be left on relatively short contracts, which avoids the club being tied up in payments long past the time when their utility declines. Up front, neither Odsonne Édouard nor Jean-Phillipe Mateta have fully established themselves as a top half striker. At 25 and 26 years old respectively, both should be able to serve as a squad option for the foreseeable future, or be sold at sufficient fee to replace that position. Unless either can provide consistent threat however, there is an expensive hole in the squad for a striker able to match the ability of Eze and Olise.
Nevertheless, the age profile, depth and quality means this is a squad that now requires tinkering rather than full scale overhaul. It is hard to see how, unless major mistakes are made, the squad can be left in the worrying state it was in 19/20 and 20/21. Given the level of quality and potential available to the club, if carefully managed there is the prospect of real progress. In current manager Roy Hodgson, they have someone they can trust to keep Palace in the division while compromises on first team signings can be taken in favour of enabling further sustainable rejuvenation of the squad. Hodgson has also shown an ability to protect and enhance the value of Palace’s star players. Both of these aspects are vital for putting in place the long term vision of the club.
As Hodgson recently put it in an interview with the Five Year Plan podcast
“‘The club should continue working in the way that it’s working and in particular, has been working for the last couple of years…when money was available, very good players were brought into the club, an ageing team was rejuvenated and there are a lot more younger players now.
The club’s philosophy is the right one. These players we’ve brought in now and are top Premier League quality.’”
Having become tired of living month to month, Palace have finally put down foundations and are ready to sustainably push on. Whether the reality can meet the high ideas of this plan, only time will tell.